The Foundation Series
Nine articles to understand macro from first principles. Beginner-first writing, fully cited, no hype.
All 9 articles published — complete the foundation series
Credit Spreads — The Smoke Detector
What the bond market knows weeks before everyone else does
Credit spreads — the difference between corporate borrowing rates and government rates — are one of the earliest and most reliable warning signals in finance. They widen weeks before equity markets crack and central banks respond. This article explains what they are, why they matter, what the historical record shows, and how to read what they're saying right now.
Bond Yields 101
What yields actually mean and why prices move opposite to them
Before credit spreads make full sense, you need to understand bond yields on their own. This article covers the inverse price-yield relationship, what duration means, and why the 10-year Treasury yield is the most-watched number in macro.
The Yield Curve
Why a chart of one bond series predicts recessions
The yield curve plots Treasury yields across different maturities. Its shape — normal, flat, inverted — has predicted every US recession since 1955. We cover why, what an inversion actually means, and how to read it.
Liquidity Plumbing
The Fed balance sheet, TGA, and reverse repo explained
Net liquidity in the financial system is one of the highest-correlation drivers of asset prices, and almost nobody outside of finance understands the plumbing. This article makes it concrete with the three key accounts.
Regime Change
How macro environments shift and how to spot transitions
Markets cycle between regimes — calm, stressed, crisis, recovery. Recognising which regime you're in matters more than predicting the next move within a regime. Covers the four-regime framework and historical transitions.
How the Fed Actually Works
Beyond 'they raise rates' — the real toolkit
The Federal Reserve has more tools than just the federal funds rate. QE, QT, the discount window, emergency facilities, forward guidance. Understanding the toolkit explains why the Fed responds to crises the way it does.
Inflation, Honestly
What it is, what causes it, and why measurement is contentious
Inflation is the most politically charged data series in macro. We strip out the politics and explain CPI, PCE, core vs headline, and why the same data can tell two different stories depending on framing.
The Dollar's Role in Everything
Why the world's reserve currency moves global markets
The US dollar is the denominator for ~60% of global trade and the funding currency for trillions in foreign debt. Its strength or weakness moves emerging markets, commodities, and risk assets — often more than US data does.
Reading the Cycle
Putting it all together — credit, liquidity, regimes, the dollar
The capstone article. By now you understand each signal individually. This one shows how to combine them into a coherent macro view, with case studies of how the framework would have read 2008, 2020, and 2022 in real time.
More coming, one article at a time
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